🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.